Monday, December 5, 2016

Episode 345 (12-5-16): From Alex to Otto, 2016 Atlantic Tropical Storm Season was a Bit Above Normal


CLICK HERE to listen to episode audio (4:59)

Transcript of audio, notes on the audio, images, and additional information follow below.

All Web addresses mentioned were functional as of 12-2-16.


TRANSCRIPT OF AUDIO

From the Cumberland Gap to the Atlantic Ocean, this is Virginia Water Radio for the week of December 5, 2016.

VOICE AND MUSIC – ~ 11 sec

This week, that excerpt from a video created by Sgt. David Erskine of the South Carolina National Guard, opens our review of the 2016 Atlantic tropical storm season, which officially ended on November 30. The season in the Atlantic basin—including the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico—officially begins June 1, but this year’s first storm formed in mid-January. Hurricane Matthew in late September and early October was the most powerful and destructive of this season’s 15 named Atlantic storms. It devastated Haiti, struck Cuba and the Bahamas, and then brought storm surge, strong winds, heavy rain, and flooding to the U.S. East Coast. Damage in Virginia led to federal disaster assistance in seven southeastern cities and two southeastern counties. For some insight into the kinds of responses a destructive hurricane can require, let’s have a listen for about 90 seconds to two people involved in responding to Matthew: first, a North Carolina National Guard member; and second, U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Dan Abel, Director of Operations for the Southern Command.

GUEST VOICES - ~87 sec

Sgt. Daren Deese, NC National Guard member: “I’m Sgt. First Class Deese, Daren Deese, I’m from Pembroke, N.C., right here in Robinson County. Once the storm came through, Robinson County got hit pretty hard with flooding in the area. ...After being in the Guard 15 years, yesterday was the first time I took a convoy of seven vehicles to the high school I graduated from, with 720 cots, blankets, toddler supplies, diapers, wipes. And when I pulled up...I could see the glow on the faces of people I knew personally, on a personal level....”

U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Dan Abel, Director of Operations for the Southern Command: “We always have Joint Task Force Bravo, which has some phenomenal aviation heavy capabilities, in Honduras. Also during the hurricane season, we have Special Purpose MGTF, the Marines—again, heavy aviation—that’s also deployed. And having those tools ready, already sources to us and in theater, was critical to making this [the response to Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean] happen. ...The other thing we really had going for us is the Navy, [which] had to dispatch/sortie their vessels anyway out of Norfolk, made the decision...to embark on those ships emergency-response forces, assets, stores, aircraft. So they didn’t just put to sea for hurricane avoidance, they put to sea prepared to join in any response that may be there. And, boy, did we put them to use as well. The response from the sea was huge.”

END GUEST VOICES

As destructive as Matthew was, it—of course—wasn’t the whole story of the 2016 Atlantic season. The 15 named storms included seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, that is, Category 3 or above, a bit above the average annual numbers from 1981 to 2010. Five named storms made landfall in the United States, the most since six occurred in 2008. And the “accumulated cyclone energy” for 2016—combining strength and duration of storms—was about 40 percent above the 1981-2010 average, largely due to three relatively strong and long-lived storms: major hurricanes Matthew, Gaston, and Nicole.

Thanks to the Defense Video and Imagery Distribution System for making this week’s sounds available for public use. And we close with a few more seconds of music from Sgt. Erskine’s Hurricane Matthew video.

MUSIC - ~9 sec

SHIP’S BELL

For more Virginia water sounds, music, and information, visit us online at virginiawaterradio.org, or call us at (540) 231-5463. Virginia Water Radio is produced by the Virginia Water Resources Research Center, part of Virginia Tech’s College of Natural Resources and Environment. Thanks to Stewart Scales for his banjo version of Cripple Creek to open and close the show. In Blacksburg, I’m Alan Raflo, thanking you for listening, and wishing you health, wisdom, and good water.

AUDIO NOTES AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This episode’s sounds were excerpted from the public-domain videos listed below, all accessed at the audio link of the Defense Video and Imagery Distribution System (DVIDS), using the site’s “Hurricane Matthew” tag, online at https://www.dvidshub.net/tags/video/hurricane-matthew:

South Carolina National Guard during Hurricane Matthew,” by Sgt. David Erskine, South Carolina National Guard, 10/25/16.

North Carolina Guard responds to Hurricane Matthew, 10/13/16, by Staff Sgt. Brendan Stephens, North Carolina National Guard.

JTF-Matthew -- A SOUTHCOM story,” by Raymond Sarracino, U.S. Southern Command, Miami, Fla., 11/3/16. This was an interview with Rear Adm. Dan Abel, U.S. Coast Guard Director of Operations for the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), who describes his command’s role in humanitarian operations in the Caribbean during Hurricane Matthew in October 2016.

IMAGES

 Hurricane Center’s graph of preliminary (subject to verification) tracks of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in 2016, as of 12-1-16; accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml.


Cumulative wind history of Hurricane Matthew for 9/28/16 through 10/9/16 (period covered by Public Advisories 1 through 47). Graphic taken from the National Hurricane Center, online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents, accessed 11/1/16, 8:00 a.m. EDT.


Hurricane Matthew (Category 3 at the time), centered over the Bahamas; and Tropical Storm Nicole in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas, 10/6/16, 8:15 a.m. EDT. Photo accessed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Web site at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html, on 10/6/16, 9:00 a.m. EDT. NOTE: Z, or Greenwich Mean Time, shown on the photo is 4 hours ahead of EDT and 5 hours ahead of EST.

EXTRA INFORMATION FOR THIS EPISODE

Below is the Hurricane Center’s list of all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in 2016, with their dates of occurrence and maximum wind speeds (H = hurricane; MH = major hurricane; TD = tropical depression; TS = tropical storm):
H Alex – Jan. 13-15 – 85 mph
TS Bonnie – May 27-June 4 – 45 mph
TS Colin – June 5-7 – 50 mph
TS Danielle – June 19-21 – 45 mph
H Earl – Aug. 2-6 – 80 mph
TS Fiona – Aug. 17-23 – 50 mph
MH Gaston – Aug 22-Sep. 3 – 120 mph
TD Eight – Aug. 28-Sep 1 – 35 mph
TS Hermine – Aug 28-Sep. 3 – 80 mph
TS Ian – Sep. 12-16 – 60 mph
TS Julia – Sep. 13-19 – 40 mph
TS Karl – Sep. 14-25 – 70 mph
TS Lisa – Sep. 19-25 – 50 mph
MH Matthew – Sep. 28-Oct. 9 – 160 mph
MH Nicole – Oct. 4-18 – 130 mph
H Otto – Nov. 21-26 – 110 mph

Source: National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2016&basin=atl.

The average annual numbers of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1981 to 2010 is 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. 2016 overall, according to the National Hurricane Center, was the first “above-normal” Atlantic tropical storm season since 2012.

Source: National Hurricane Center news release, “First above-normal Atlantic hurricane season since 2012 produced five landfalling U.S. storms,” 11/30/16.

Below are hurricane categories, based on sustained wind speeds and potential for damage:
Category 1 – wind speed 74-95 mph (119-153 km/hr.; 64-82 knots); very dangerous winds will produce some damage;
Category 2 – wind speed 96-110 mph (154-177 km/hr.; 83-95 knots); extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage;
Category 3 – wind speed 111-129 mph (107-208 km/hr.; 96-112 knots); devastating damage will occur;
Category 4 – wind speed 130-156 mph (209-251 km/hr.; 113-136 knots); catastrophic damage will occur;
Category 5 – wind speed ≥157 mph (252 km/hr.; 137 knots); catastrophic damage will occur.

Source:
National Weather Service, “Tropical Weather,” part of “JetStream—An Online School for Weather,” online at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/tropics_intro.html.

SOURCES USED FOR AUDIO

John Boyer, Several storms left their mark during 2016 hurricane season, Richmond Times-Dispatch, 11/30/16.

National Hurricane Center, “Monthly Tropical Weather Summary,” 12/1/16, online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml.

National Hurricane Center news release, “First above-normal Atlantic hurricane season since 2012 produced five landfalling U.S. storms,” 11/30/16.

Virginia Governor’s Office news releases:
Governor McAuliffe Requests Federal Disaster Declaration Following Hurricane Matthew, 10/21/16;
President Obama Approves Federal Aid for Virginians Impacted by Hurricane Matthew, 11/2/16; and
Governor McAuliffe Announces Federal Disaster Assistance for State and Local Governments Impacted by Hurricane Matthew, 11/17/16.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL STORMS

National Hurricane Center briefing podcasts, available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/.

National Weather Service, “Tropical Weather,” part of “JetStream—An Online School for Weather,” online at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/tropics_intro.html. This site has information on the history and science of tropical storms. The main JetStream site, at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/index.html, has information about many other weather topics, too.

Virginia Water Central News Grouper tropical storm posts, available online at https://vawatercentralnewsgrouper.wordpress.com/?s=tropical+storm.

RELATED VIRGINIA WATER RADIO EPISODES

All Water Radio episodes are listed by category at the Index link (http://www.virginiawaterradio.org/p/index.html); see particularly the “Weather/Natural Disasters” subject category.

Previous episodes on tropical storms include the following:
Annual season-preview episodes: Episode 163 - 5/27/13, Episode 215 - 5/26/14, Episode 266 - 5/18/15, Episode 317 - 5/23/16.
Mid-season outlook: Episode 330 - 8/22/16.
Storm surge threat: Episode 134 - 10/29/12 (during Hurricane Sandy); Episode 337 - 10/10/16 (during Hurricane Matthew).

STANDARDS OF LEARNING (SOLs) FOR VIRGINIA TEACHERS
The episode may help with the following Virginia 2010 Science SOLs:

Grades K-6 Earth Patterns, Cycles, and Change Theme
2.7 – Weather and seasonal changes affecting plants and animals.
3.9 – Water cycle, including sources of water, energy driving water cycle, water essential for living things, and water limitations and conservation.

Grades K-6 Interrelationships in Earth/Space Systems Theme
2.6 – identification of common storms and other weather phenomena.
4.6 – weather conditions, phenomena, and measurements.
5.6 – characteristics of the ocean environment.

Grades K-6 Living Systems Theme
6.6 – structure and dynamics of Earth’s atmosphere.

Life Science Course
LS. 10 - changes over time in ecosystems, communities, and populations, and factors affecting those changes, including climate changes and catastrophic disturbances.

Earth Science Course
ES.10 – ocean processes, interactions, and policies affecting coastal zones, including Chesapeake Bay.
ES.11 – origin, evolution, and dynamics of the atmosphere, including human influences on climate.
ES.12 – weather and climate.

The episode may also help with the following Virginia 2008 Social Studies SOLs:

Civics and Economics Course
CE.7 – government at the state level.
CE.8 – government at the local level.
CE.9 – public policy at local, state, and national levels.

World Geography Course
WG.2 - how selected physical and ecological processes shape the Earth’s surface, including how humans influence their environment and are influenced by it.
WG.10 - cooperation among political jurisdictions to solve problems and settle disputes.

Government Course
GOVT.8 – state and local government organization and powers.
GOVT.9 – public policy at local, state, and national levels.

The episode may also help with the following Virginia 2015 Social Studies SOLs, which become effective in the 2017-18 school year:

Civics and Economics Course
CE.7 – government at the state level.
CE.8 – government at the local level.
CE.10 – public policy at local, state, and national levels.

World Geography Course
WG.2 - how selected physical and ecological processes shape the Earth’s surface, including how humans influence their environment and are influenced by it.
WG.4 - types and significance of natural, human, and capital resources.
WG.18 - cooperation among political jurisdictions to solve problems and settle disputes.

Government Course
GOVT.8 – state and local government organization and powers.
GOVT.9 – public policy at local, state, and national levels.

Virginia’s SOLs are available from the Virginia Department of Education, online at http://www.doe.virginia.gov/testing/.